Unacceptable Recidivism The Problem: Most Offenders are Repeat Offenders
This chart is one of many ways of looking at the
problem of recidivism. Of the people jailed in Portland for this
month for the listed offenses (center column), anywhere from 40%
to 95% had been in jail in Portland for something within the previous 12
months (right hand column). And of the misdemeanor assaults, which
account for the lowest apparent recidivism, many had been subject of previous
“family beef” police calls that did not result in arrest.
Portland Police Statistics for Jailed Suspects For Persons Arrested During July 2000
Charges
Number jailed this month
Of those jailed this month, the number also jailed within the last year in Portland
All
2395
1246
Burglary
32
22
Robbery
23
22
Felony Assault
33
22
Theft I
26
20
Felony Drug
372
304
Theft II
61
36
Misdemeanor Assault
160
68
Menacing
70
47
Trespass
80
53
Motor Vehicle Theft
39
32
Source: Portland Police Bureau
Data Processing, August 25, 2000
A more recent Multnomah County project, made possible
by our “DSS-Justice” data
warehouse, revealed that “4% of our offenders accounted for 23% of
[s]tandard bookings between 1995 and 1999.” The Booking
Frequency Pilot Project In Multnomah County, Oregon: A Focus On Process
And Frequencies, at i (The Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office, Dan Noelle,
Sheriff, In collaboration with the Multnomah County Department of Community
and Family Services, Department of Community Justice, Health Department,
and Corrections Health Division (January 2002)).
This is hardly unique to Portland. Other
measures typically place recidivism in the range of 60-75%. For example,
a fairly recent Bureau
of Justice Statistics Special Report recited “Of the 108,580 persons
released from prisons in 11 States in 1983, an estimated 62.5% were rearrested
for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.8% were reconvicted,
and 41.4% returned to prison or jail.” These and similar findings
were included in a more recent compendium
of statistics from that Bureau, which recited that "More than 7 of
every 10 jail inmates had prior sentences to probation or incarceration,”
and “272,111 offenders discharged in 1994 accounted for nearly 4,877,000
arrest charges over their recorded careers.”
A recent English
study found that of nearly 10,000 prisoners, 84% had prior arrests;
another
concluded that "58% of those released from prison are
convicted of a new offense within two years," and "[f]or prisoners
aged under 21, two-year reconviction rates following imprisonment for offences
such as
burglary, theft, and handling stolen property are over 80 per cent."
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reports
that “[m]ore than 60% of offenders in prison at the time of the 1994
Census had been imprisoned at some time previously” with a high of 78%
for “break and enter” offenders. The New Zealand Ministry of Justice reports
that “over two-thirds (70%) of [studied prison] inmates had more than 10
convictions prior to being imprisoned” and “nearly two-thirds (65%) of
inmates imprisoned for a violent offence were reconvicted within two years
of their release, and over three-quarters (79%) were reconvicted within
five years. These proportions are a little lower than those for all inmates
released.” The National Crime Prevention Centre of the Department
of Justice of Canada reports
“approximately 75% to 80% of incarcerated adults were persistent offenders
in their youth.” A study for the Canadian Solicitor General compared
recidivism among child molesters with that of other offenders and reported
that “long-term recidivism rates for the child molesters were . .
. 61 percent versus 83.2 percent” for other criminals. Hanson,
R. K., Scott, H., & Steffy, R. A., A comparison of child molesters
and nonsexual criminals : Risk predictors and long-term recidivism.
Journal
of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 32(3), 325-337 (1995).
Although lower recidivism rates are often published
by correctional agencies, they generally reflect a definition of recidivism
that excludes misdemeanors and the more common crimes of lower level assaults
(including most domestic violence), most thefts, most drunk driving, and
thereby the great bulk of crimes that justly anger our constituencies.
In any event, we see the repeaters repeatedly, and we have a responsibility
to make our best effort to reduce their criminal behavior when they appear
before us for sentencing.
